Disappointing, Berners? Sure. NOT Devastating – not at all

Tamara Marston on the New York Primary:

My recap: Disappointing day for Bernie and supporters, but far from devastating, as the Spinners-That-Be will be mightily spinning it.

The reason? This: While in 2008, Obama won only one county of 64 in Clinton’s “home state” of New York; this time, Sanders took FIFTY counties to Clinton’s twelve. (Think about that for a coupla seconds… and how such a change reflects something of that eyebrow-raising,negative national favorability number.) And, since delegates are awarded by congressional district, Clinton looks to only net 30 delegates with her win (final results not yet in)… what looked like a substantial win didn’t amount to a substantial net gain.

So… here’s where we stand. None of the online poll-trackers show the actual, current pledged delegate numbers that include all of the info — the redistributions in Nevada and Colorado, plus the Washington State delegates won but not yet awarded (until the last stage of caucusing is complete — Sanders’ numbers won’t go down there).

With these factored in, Bernie went into New York down only 205 pledged delegates. After tonight, he looks to be down no more than 236. (Which is around what most outlets were reporting going into New York.)

There are 1668 pledged delegates still up for grabs.

Sanders’ continues to narrow the gap in delegate-rich California, a state with semi-open primaries with registration changes allowed til May 23. This is great for Bernie’s Independent voters.

(Reminder here: Don’t even bring up superdelegates. Despite the doggedly-manipulative media spin on their graphs and reports, superdelegate votes do not exist yet and won’t until after the Convention, after the pledged delegate total is known. Due to their unpledged status and their intended roles, they are irrelevant right now and have no business on any tracking graphs.)


Bernie is still in this game. Sure, odds are against him… but they always have been, and look at all the states he’s won, the political awakening he’s inspiring. And how much of even New York State is Bernie-colored tonight…

New York Primary results by County

…And just how very far he’s come in this Amazing Race of his.

Democratic polling over time
Berners, get a good rest after all your work and chewed fingernails… then start your motors!
PS – If you want some good vibes, go here and scroll down through all those 50counties. Just dig the win margins, and all those lovely graphs with Bernie on top. Suh-weet.

 

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  1. albert warbritton 2 years ago
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